Super Bowl Race after Week 7 (through Sunday)
London lit the fuse, Week 7 poured petrol on it. Here’s who’s in the fight, who’s on the bubble, and who’s already packing for the draft.
Setting the scene
London check-in: The Rams pasted the Jaguars 35–7 at Wembley with five Stafford TDs (first five-TD game in an international) while the pass rush rang up seven sacks. Last weekend at Tottenham, the Broncos beat the Jets 13–11 with nine sacks. That’s two UK Sundays, two different moods, both loud.
The headline thumpers: The Chiefs nuked the Raiders 31–0 and held them to ~95 yards total; the Eagles snapped their skid with a 28–22 clinic; the Colts moved to 6–1; the Broncos pulled a bonkers 33-point fourth-quarter comeback to get to 5–2.
Numbers current through Sunday of Week 7 (MNF still to come). Standings via NFL.com/ESPN.
Tier 1 — True contenders (right now)
- Colts (6–1)The AFC’s best record, balanced offence (Taylor + Jones) and game scripts that travel. Smothered the Chargers to stretch the lead in the South. Form + point differential scream January.
- Rams (5–2)Stafford just threw five at Wembley, the front cooked, and they look scheme-sound with or without Puka. That’s a February template.
- Eagles (5–2)Perfect-rating Hurts (19/23, 326, 3 TD) and explosives back online. If the trench health holds, they’re a 1-seed threat.
- Buccaneers (5–1)Multiple power rankings have them at No.1, and the record backs it. Defence opportunistic, offence efficient.
- Chiefs (4–3)Scoreline says it all: 31–0 over LV, 95 yards allowed. If that defence sticks, Mahomes + Rice/Brown/Worthy is nightmare fuel.
- Packers (4–1–1)Ugly wins count the same; rallied past Arizona and keep stacking results. Situational ball is playoff ball.
Tier 2 — Strong challengers / Dark horses
- Broncos (5–2)From wobble to identity: pass rush + composure. The Giants collapse was wild, but Denver earned it with 33 in the fourth.
- Patriots (5–2)Four straight, rookie Drake Maye ruthlessly on-schedule, and (bonus) one of the easiest remaining schedules per Sharp. Don’t laugh — this translates.
- Bills (4–2)Slid into a bye week after two Ls; talent ceiling remains high and AFC East still navigable.
- Lions (4–2)Power-ranking darling with a top-half point margin; if they tidy the red zone, they’re a January nuisance.
- Chargers (4–3)Explosive on offence; if turnovers come down, they’re dangerous on the road. Colts loss exposed the run D though.
- Steelers (4–2)Still lead the North despite a TNF slip; defence keeps the floor high.
On the bubble — could swing up or down
| Team | Record | Why they’re here |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 4–3 | Still in AFC WC mix but Wembley exposed penalties & protection; two-game skid. |
| Seahawks | 4–2 | Top-5 in some power lists; need offensive consistency to jump tiers. |
| Browns | 2–5 | Smothered Miami; if the run game travels, they climb. |
| Giants | 2–5 | Capable in spurts, but that late collapse was brutal; mental scar tissue risk. |
| Raiders | 2–5 | Were out-gained 434–94 and blanked; trendline ugly until the offence wakes up. |
Probably out (and why)
- Jets (0–7)Offence in free-fall, QB benchings, and not even London mojo could fix the protection. Historic bad vibes.
- Titans (1–6)Coach fired last week, rookie QB pressing, turnovers mounting. That’s not a playoff recipe.
- Dolphins (1–6)Skid, mistakes, and a 31–6 no-show in Cleveland. Confidence in the bin, schedule no gift.
- Cardinals (2–5)Blew another lead, haven’t beaten a winning team in a year; trend screams spoiler not contender.
Mathematically alive? Sure. But at this stage, you need trajectory and tiebreakers. These teams have neither.
What actually decides February
- QB + OL stabilityChiefs got their WR room back and the line set; result was a 31–0 demolition. Continuity wins.
- Point margin ≈ truth serumColts, Rams among league leaders in net points — that’s predictive over “style points.”
- Remaining schedulePatriots grade as one of the easiest run-ins; that’s how you stack a seed quietly.
If the Super Bowl were drafted today…
| Bucket | Matchup | One-liner |
|---|---|---|
| Chalk | Chiefs vs Eagles | KC defence just announced itself; Philly’s explosives back. |
| Form pick | Rams vs Colts | Stafford’s distribution vs Indy’s balance — both travel. |
| Value | Packers vs Chiefs | Green Bay are quietly efficient; KC upside is obvious. |
| Spicy | Broncos vs Eagles | Denver trench heat vs Hurts’ explosives: yes please. |
Reality check: two MNF games still to come, so pencil not pen — but the tiers above reflect actual form, not vibes.
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